Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Fiscal Stimulus : Does "productive spending" have any role in revival

Most of the fiscal stimulus plans being announced always have a stress on productive spending. Take for example the view of Mr. Obama, on his big infrastructure push to kick start the US economy. Most of the push of the fiscal plan is on building infrastructure in terms of roads, flyovers etc. The role of such infrastructure spending in restarting the economy has still not be confirmed. Many people relate back to the New Deal era which also was a infrastructure development oriented fiscal plan. 

Whether the New Deal revived the US economy is still an unanswered question. The economy recovered during the 1933-1936 period and then again fell during the recession of 1937. The failure of the New Deal to revive the economy is due to the certain policies that worked at cross purposes. The government was increasing its spending and at the same time cutting the incomes in the hands of the employees, and tried to increase food prices with supply curtailment. All of this restricted the consumption and employment of the people. 

Coming back to the point, fiscal stimulus would be useful only if it is able to stimulate public consumption. Increased consumption by the people is the only way to get out of a deflation. Increasing public spending without increasing the confidence of the people to spend would not be of much use. It would only increase the deficits and make it even more difficult to revive the economy. Japan is a case point in this regard.Care always has to be taken in this regard. Demand revival is important than investments. It is important to know that Keynes never stated that the government spending should be productive only that pay people to dig and fill.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Keynesian concept of government spending on infrastructure is based on the concept that more money in the hands of public will boost their confidence and increase the public spending/consumption. Which in turn will revive the other commodity based industries. Is there any other way (larger than government spending on infrastructure) that can bring back the consumers morale?